Image Courtesy: China Daily
Article 17/2024
In a Nutshell
The swift collapse of the Syrian government has dramatically affected the balance of power not only in the Levant, but also in West Asia and possibly even wider. While Israel had done all the hard work after the Hamas terror attack of October 7, 2023, by eliminating the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas, devastating their command-and-control, supply-chains, and cadres, it is this singular act of capitulation by Syria that is defining in the overall context. Though the situation is still developing, there is unanimity that Iran is the biggest loser. Its ‘Axis of Resistance’ funded, trained and equipped by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) under the direct control of their Supreme Leader, lies decimated. There are other losers too such as Russia, a major proponent of the Bashar al-Assad regime over many decades, especially during critical times recently. China too has suffered a setback in its diplomatic push to evict American influence in the region and establish itself firmly by piggybacking on Iran and its ‘Axis of Resistance’. One of the biggest gainers is Israel, both militarily and diplomatically, due to multiple reasons. Turkey has also made significant gains in the process. It has not only installed a pliant regime in Syria, but also has mended its relationship with the US and the NATO paving the way for getting the US F-35B fighters for its Air Force. There are also other losers and gainers to varying degrees in this diplomatic chess-game which had unfortunately put the Syrians, Kurds, Yazidis, Armenians, Arabs et al through unbearable times for almost two decades.
So, what happened?
The Story So Far:
The uneventful fall of Damascus harkens back to a similar event about seven centuries ago when the Mongolian Hulegu Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan, captured it after conquering Aleppo. The residents of Damascus, terrified by the horrors at Aleppo, simply surrendered to Hulegu without resistance. Why did Damascus surrender yet again?
The answer lies with a series of events culminating on December 8,2024 when the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow where he was quickly granted asylum.
The Syrian Civil War started mid-2011, as part of the widespread Arab-spring, and from its beginning several nation-states and non-state entities were involved, at times reinforcing each other and oftentimes working at cross-purposes because their goals were different. Syria was a lynchpin in Iran’s anti-Zionist programme and served as an important conduit for military supplies to the pro-Iranian anti-Israeli Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Syrian troops who were also engaging with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) over the years, were also equipped with Iranian missiles, drones etc.
Though secular, the pro-Shi’a Alawite regime of Bashar al-Assad was an ally of the fiercely anti-Semitic and anti-Zionist Iranian regime. While Iran was never hostile towards Israel earlier, the Khomeini revolution changed it all in c.1979. The Iranian Revolution raised the fear of a rapidly radicalizing Shi’a Iran, among the Sunni West Asian Emirs. The Iranian clerical regime wanted to export its brand of Islamist revolution by trying to subvert and outwit these Kingdoms through appeals to their Sunni population on the emotive issues of Israel, Jews, Palestinians, and the US policies.
As events unfolded, a front began to develop against Iran. While the US had multiple geopolitical reasons, the West Asian Kingdoms wanted to diminish the influence of the Iranian clergy and throttle Iran. With their interests converging, the two parties used the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) to start an uprising in Syria by mid-2011. While the Americans have had a long-standing relationship with MB going back to the days of Syed Qutb, surprisingly even the West Asian Kingdoms also preferred MB despite their long-standing antipathy towards them.
At the same time, Turkey wanted to use this opportunity of uprising to invade and establish control over the northern parts of Syria in order to control the Kurds whose Turkish party, the “Kurdistan Workers’ Party” (PKK) had been declared by it as a terrorist group. Turkey created an anti-Bashar faction, known as Free Syrian Army (FSA) - later renamed as Syrian National Army (SNA) - within the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). The West Asian kingdoms promptly expelled Syria from the Arab league. The Al Qaeda (AQ) and the fledgling Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS) wanted to establish their own caliphate now that the one in Af-Pak had been destroyed and Caliph Osama bin Laden (OBL) had been physically eliminated. The long-suffering Kurds, Yazidis, Armenians, and the Christian Assyrians in the ‘Rojava’ region in northern Syria (extending almost from the Mediterranean Sea in the west to Iraq in the east) saw an opportunity to escape the Syrian State persecution. The Americans deployed their forces in north-east Syria to fight the AQ and the ISIS in partnership with Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish Peshmerga forces as well as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) established by them in Rojava. They had tacit support from the West Asian rulers. The Peshmerga is the military unit of the two in-fighting Iraqi Kurdish political parties, the democratic KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) and the leftist PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan). The US-Peshmerga collaboration goes back to c. 2003 when the US launched the Iraq war. For their part, the Russians got involved to prove the point that they could not be discarded in international geopolitics and their military was still strong. There have thus been myriad players in Syria, each with their own agenda.
As the IS brutalities caused worldwide revulsion, the US and Russia announced joint operations against the ISIS. The US airstrikes wrested Manbij (an important city in Rojava) from IS control while the Russian air force drove ISIS out of Palmyra. The AQ affiliate in Syria, known as Jabhat al-Nusra, dissociated itself from AQ in July 2016 and re-branded itself as Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (Life for Freedom of Levant, HTS), sensing bigger opportunities going alone than being saddled with the AQ or IS baggages. They were probably encouraged to do so by the US, Turkey and West Asian Kingdoms. The Jabhat and the HTS have been equally vicious though the latter’s Emir, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, now says he has changed and has become a ‘statesman’.
After being in hibernation for quite some time, the HTS made its military moves, covertly supported by almost all anti-Bashar and anti-Iran forces, as soon as Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was announced recently. With Iran on the backfoot with its failures on all fronts against Israel, Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and the command and control of Hamas and Hezbollah eliminated, the HTS saw the opportunity and exploited it.
What lies in the Future?
The situation is still bleak not only for Syria but also the entire region as the sectarian Sunni fundamentalist HTS cannot be the unifying force that can safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a diverse Syria, while ensuring internal security. The joy of the Syrians may be short-lived as competing interests begin to take over in coming days sliding easily into an internecine war as it happened in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal following Geneva Peace Accords.
It is not clear if the Salafist HTS would continue with the Syrian (and Iranian) agenda of a never-ending anti-Zionist policy or not. That decision lies in the hands of its major benefactors, Turkey and Qatar. In any case, Iran has in one fell swoop been deprived of its biggest ally in its anti-Israeli agenda. Israel has quickly and massively struck at Syria to ensure that assets of the Syrian armed forces and Iran-supplied weapons and platforms to anti-Israeli groups did not fall into the hands of the HTS. After wiping out Syrian air and naval forces, Israel can now operate with impunity in Syria. It is also expanding its buffer zones within Syria. With all these developments, the Lebanese and the Israelis in the north would have a more peaceful life, at least in the near future.
Iran has lost tremendous face from which the theocratic state would find itself difficult to easily extricate, especially with the looming Trump administration ahead. With mounting displeasure within Iran itself in recent years against the ruling clergy, and increasing economic woes which a floundering China or Russia would not be able to help salvage, there is every possibility of an uprising there in near term. The extraordinary and unnecessary focus on a faraway Israel for decades at the cost of Iranian economy would come back to bite the clergy. However, changes, if any, must be allowed to happen organically and without external imposition.
The US and allies would pressurize Iran to concede on the nuclear deal, which a debilitated Iran may find tough to resist. China’s diplomatic overdrive on the back of Iran-Israel conflict in order to insert itself into West Asia would now take a pause due to changed circumstances. China’s approach of gaslighting wars in order to achieve its geostrategic goals remains extinguished, at least for now in West Asia. The Iran-Saudi Arabia Peace Deal, brokered by China in c. 2023, is tenuous at best and how it would progress now remains a moot point. Elsewhere too, another proxy-militia of Iran, the Houthis, would find it difficult to sustain their offensive or threatening posture within and beyond Yemen and the Saudis may be tempted to once again intervene there. Strangely, Iraq, with which Iran fought a decade long brutal war in the ‘80s, remains the only unscathed member of its Axis with its Israel-focussed militia still intact.
Having excellent relationship with all the nation-states involved in this sad drama and being a dominant power in the immediate neighbourhood, India should play its role to ensure peace. India must firmly dissuade Iran away from building nuclear weapons. It must help the two parties, Israel and the Palestinians, pursue a two-state solution while opposing all terrorism. India should also help in re-building Gaza and providing humanitarian assistance. Indian efforts to restore peace can hasten international projects like the INSTC and IMEC, the former benefitting Iran and the latter, Israel. India must also ensure that Syria does not become once again a breeding ground for the likes of ISIS and AQ as several scores of Indians had participated in the programmes of these terror groups in Syria and weakened India’s own internal security.
However, the West Asian Kingdoms may have to worry about the resurrection of Al Qaeda now in the form of HTS. The AQ now has an Arab country and has come closer to Saudi Arabia’s doorstep than OBL had done ever before. Sometimes, the more it changes, the more it remains the same.
The reference to the Hulegu campaign would be incomplete without recalling what happened subsequently. Hulegu overstretched to Egypt, where a Mamluk King who had sworn to avenge the Mongols, was waiting with the same war tactics that the Mongols were famous for, pretending to retreat but only to encircle the enemy into a deadly ambush with a large force. Defeated, Hulegu Khan hastily retreated to Tabriz, Iran.
(Mr. Subramnyam Sridharan is a Distinguished Member of C3S. The views in the article are solely the author’s and does not reflect the views of CAS.)
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